Free Forex eBook - Read and Learn

A History of Forex

Mark McRae

The purpose of this ebook is to introduce the forex market to you. As with many markets there are many derivative of the central market such as futures, options and forwards. For the purpose of this book we will only be discussing the main market sometime referred to as the Spot or Cash market.

The word FOREX is derived from Foreign Exchange and is the largest financial market in the world. Unlike many markets the FX market is open 24 hours per day and has an estimated $1.2 Trillion in turnover every day. This tremendous turnover is more than the combined turnover of all the wordls' stock markets on any given day. This tends to lead to a very liquid market and thus a desirable market to trade.

Unlike many other securities (any financial instrument that can be traded) the FX market does not have a fixed exchange. It is primarily traded through banks, brokers, dealers, financial institutions and private individuals. Trades are executed through phone and increasingly through the Internet. It is only in the last few years that the smaller investor has been able to gain access to this market. Previously the large amounts of deposits required precluded the smaller investors. With the advent of the Internet and growing competition it is now easily in the reach of most investors.

You will often hear the term INTERBANK discussed in FX terminology. This originally, as the name implies was simply banks and large institutions exchanging information about the current rate at which their clients or themselves were prepared to buy or sell a currency. INTER meaning between and Bank meaning deposit taking institutions normally made up of banks, large institution, brokers or even the government. The market has moved on to such a degree now that the term interbank now means anybody who is prepared to buy or sell a currency. It could be two individuals or your local travel agent offering to exchange Euros for US Dollars. You will however find that most of the brokers and banks use centralized feeds to insure reliability of quote. The quotes for Bid (buy) and Offer (sell) will all be from reliable sources. These quotes are normally made up of the top 300 or so large institutions. This insures that if they place an order on your behalf that the institutions they have placed the order with is capable of fulfilling the order.

Now although we have spoken about orders being fulfilled, it is estimated that anywhere from 70%-90% of the FX market is speculative. In other words the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no intention of actually taking delivery of the currency. Instead they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency.

Source: Bank For International Settlements http://www.bis.org Extract From The Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity. Currency 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
US Dollar 90 82.0 83.3 87.3 90.4
Euro . . . . 37.6
Japanese Yen 27 23.4 24.1 20.2 22.7
Pound Sterling 15 13.6 9.4 11.0 13.2
Swiss Franc 10 8.4 7.3 7.1 6.1

As you can see from the above table over 90% of all currencies are traded against the US Dollar. The four next most traded currencies are the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), Pound Sterling (GBP) and Swiss Franc(CHF). As currencies are traded in pairs and exchanged one for the other when traded, the rate at which they are exchanged is called the exchange rate. These four currencies traded against the US Dollar make up the majority of the market and are called major currencies or the majors.

Market Mechanics

So now we know that the FX market is the largest in the world and that your broker or institution that you are trading with is collecting quotes from a centralized feed or individual quotes comprising of interbank rates. So how are these quotes made up. Well, as we previously mentioned currencies are traded in pairs and are each assigned a symbol. For the Japanese Yen it is JPY, for the Pounds Sterling it is GBP, for Euro it is EUR and for the Swiss Frank it is CHF. So, EUR/USD would be Euro-Dollar pair. GBP/USD would be pounds Sterling-Dollar pair and USD/CHF would be Dollar-Swiss Franc pair and so on. You will always see the USD quoted first with few exceptions such as Pounds Sterling, EuroDollar, Australia Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. The first currency quoted is called the base currency. Have a look below for some example.

Currency Symbol Currency Pair
EUR/USD Euro / US Dollar
GBP/USD Pounds Sterling/ US Dollar
USD/JPY US Dollar / Japanese Yen
USD/CHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc
USD/CAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
AUD/USD Australian Dollar / US Dollar
NZD/USD New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

When you see FX quotes you will actually see two numbers. The first number is called the bid and the second number is called the offer (sometimes called the ASK). If we use the EUR/USD as an example you might see 0.9950/0.9955 the first number 0.9950 is the bid price and is the price traders are prepared to buy Euros against the USD Dollar. The second number 0.9955 is the offer price and is the price traders are prepared to sell the Euro against the US Dollar. These quotes are sometimes abbreviated to the last two digits of the currency such as 50/55. Each broker has its own convention and some will quote the full number and others will show only the last two. You will also notice that there is a difference between the bid and the offer price and that is called the spread. For the four major currencies the spread is normally 5 give or take a pip (will explain pips later)

To carry on from the symbol conventions and using our previous EUR quote of 0.9950 bid, that means that 1 Euro = 0.9950 US Dollars. In another example if we used the USD/CAD 1.4500 that would mean that 1 US Dollar = 1.4500 Canadian Dollars.

The most common increment of currencies is the PIP. If the EUR/USD moves from 0.9550 to 0.9551 that is one Pip. A pip is the last decimal place of a quotation. The Pip or POINT as it is sometimes referred to depending on context is how we will measure our profit or loss.

As each currency has its own value it is necessary to calculate the value of a pip for that particular currency. We also want a constant so we will assume that we want to convert everything to US Dollars. In currencies where the US Dollar is quoted first the calculation would be as follows.

Example JPY rate of 116.73 (notice the JPY only goes to two decimal places, most of the other currencies have four decimal places)

In the case of the JPY 1 pip would be .01 therefore

USD/JPY: (.01 divided by exchange rate = pip value) so .01/116.73=0.0000856 it looks like a big number but later we will discuss lot (contract) size.

USD/CHF: (.0001 divided by exchange rate = pip value) so .0001/1.4840 = 0.0000673

USD/CAD: (.0001 divided by exchange rate = pip value) so .0001/1.5223 = 0.0001522

In the case where the US Dollar is not quoted first and we want to get to the US Dollar value we have to add one more step.

EUR/USD: (0.0001 divided by exchange rate = pip value) so .0001/0.9887 = EUR 0.0001011 but we want to get back to US Dollars so we add another little calculation which is EUR X Exchange rate so 0.0001011 X 0.9887 = 0.0000999 when rounded up it would be 0.0001.

GBP/USD: (0.0001 divided by exchange rate = pip value) so 0.0001/1.5506 = GBP 0.0000644 but we want to get back to US Dollars so we add another little calculation which is GBP X Exchange rate so 0.0000644 X 1.5506 = 0.0000998 when rounded up it would be 0.0001.

By this time you might be rolling your eyes back and thinking do I really need to work all this out and the answer is no. Nearly all the brokers you will deal with will work all this out for you. They may have slightly different conventions but it is all done automatically. It is good however for you to know how they work it out. In the next section we will be discussing how these seemingly insignificant amounts can add up.

More On Market Mechanics

Spot Forex is traditionally traded in lots also referred to as contracts. The standard size for a lot is $100,000. In the last few years a mini lot size has been introduced of $10,000 and this again may change in the years to come. As we mentioned on the previous page currencies are measured in pips, which is the smallest increment of that currency. To take advantage of these tiny increments it is desirable to trade large amounts of a particular currency in order to see any significant profit or loss. We shall cover leverage later but for the time being let's assume we will be using $100,000 lot size. We will now recalculate some examples to see how it effects the pip value.

USD/JPY at an exchange rate of 116.73

(.01/116.73) X $100,000 = $8.56 per pip

USD/CHF at an exchange rate of 1.4840

(0.0001/1.4840) X $100,000 = $6.73 per pip

In cases where the US Dollar is not quoted first the formula is slightly different.

EUR/USD at an exchange rate of 0.9887

(0.0001/ 0.9887) X EUR 100,000 = EUR 10.11 to get back to US Dollars we add a further step

EUR 10.11 X Exchange rate which looks like EUR 10.11 X 0.9887 = $9.9957 rounded up will be $10 per pip.

GBP/USD at an exchange rate of 1.5506

(0.0001/1.5506) X GBP 100,000 = GBP 6.44 to get back to US Dollars we add a further step

GBP 6.44 X Exchange rate which looks like GBP 6.44 X 1.5506 = $9.9858864 rounded up will be $10 per pip.

As we said earlier your broker may have a different convention for calculating pip value relative to lot size but however they do it they will be able to tell you what the pip value for the currency you are trading is at that particular time. Remember that as the market moves so will the pip value depending on what currency you trade.

So now we know how to calculate pip value lets have a look at how you work out your profit or loss. Let's assume you want to buy US Dollars and Sell Japanese Yen. The rate you are quoted is 116.70/116.75 because you are buying the US you will be working on the 116.75, the rate at which traders are prepared to sell. So you buy 1 lot of $100,000 at 116.75. A few hours later the price moves to 116.95 and you decide to close your trade. You ask for a new quote and are quoted 116.95/117.00 as you are now closing your trade and you initially bought to enter the trade you now sell in order to close the trade and you take 116.95 the price traders are prepared to buy at. The difference between 116.75 and 116.95 is .20 or 20 pips. Using our formula from before, we now have (.01/116.95) X $100,000 = $8.55 per pip X 20 pips =$171

In the case of the EUR/USD you decide to sell the EUR and are quoted 0.9885/0.9890 you take 0.9885. Now don't get confused here. Remember you are now selling and you need a buyer. The buyer is biding 0.9885 and that is what you take. A few hours later the EUR moves to 0.9805 and you ask for a quote. You are quoted 0.9805/0.9810 and you take 0.9810. You originally sold EUR to open the trade and now to close the trade you must buy back your position. In order to buy back your position you take the price traders are prepared to sell at which is 0.9810. The difference between 0.9810 and 0.9885 is 0.0075 or 75 pips. Using the formula from before, we now have (.0001/0.9810) X EUR 100,000 = EUR10.19: EUR 10.19 X Exchange rate 0.9810 =$9.99($10) so 75 X $10 = $750.

To reiterate what has gone before, when you enter or exit a trade at some point your are subject to the spread in the bid/offer quote. As a rule of thumb when you buy a currency you will use the offer price and when you sell you will use the bid price. So when you buy a currency you pay the spread as you enter the trade but not as you exit and when you sell a currency you pay no spread when you enter but only when you exit.

Leverage

Leverage financed with credit, such as that purchased on a margin account is very common in Forex. A margined account is a leverageable account in which Forex can be purchased for a combination of cash or collateral depending what your brokers will accept. The loan(leverage) in the margined account is collateralized by your initial margin (deposit), if the value of the trade (position) drops sufficiently, the broker will ask you to either put in more cash, or sell a portion of your position or even close your position. Margin rules may be regulated in some countries, but margin requirements and interest vary among broker/dealers so always check with the company you are dealing with to ensure you understand their policy.

Up until this point you are probably wondering how a small investor can trade such large amounts of money (positions). The amount of leverage you use will depend on your broker and what you feel comfortable with. There was a time when it was difficult to find companies prepared to offer margined accounts but nowadays you can get leverage from a high as 1% with some brokerages. This means you could control $100,000 with only $1,000.

Typically the broker will have a minimum account size also known as account margin or initial margin e.g. $10,000. Once you have deposited your money you will then be able to trade. The broker will also stipulate how much they require per position (lot) traded. In the example above for every $1,000 you have you can take a lot of $100,000 so if you have $5,000 they may allow you to trade up to $500,00 of forex.

The minimum security (Margin) for each lot will very from broker to broker. In the example above the broker required a one percent margin. This means that for every $100,000 traded the broker wanted $1,000 as security on the position. Margin call is also something that you will have to be aware of. If for any reason the broker thinks that your position is in danger e.g. you have a position of $100,000 with a margin of one percent ($1,000) and your losses are approaching your margin ($1,000). He will call you and either ask you to deposit more money, or close your position to limit your risk and his risk. If you are going to trade on a margin account it is imperative that you talk with your broker first to find out what their polices are on this type of accounts.

Variation Margin is also very important. Variation margin is the amount of profit or loss your account is showing on open positions. Let's say you have just deposited $10,000 with your broker. You take 5 lots of USD/JPY which is $500,000. To secure this the broker needs $5,000 (1%). The trade goes bad and your losses equal $5001, your broker may do a margin call. The reason he may do a margin call is that even though you still have $4,999 in your account the broker needs that as security and allowing you to use it could endanger yourself and him. Another way to look at it is this, if you have an account of $10,000 and you have a 1 lot ($100,000) position. That's $1,000 assuming a (1% margin) is no longer available for you to trade. The money still belongs to you but for the time you are margined the broker needs that as security. Another point of note is that some brokers may require a higher margin at the weekeneds. This may take the form of 1% margin during the week and if you intend to hold the position over the weekend it may rise to 2% or higher. Also in the example we have used a 1% margin. This is by no means standard. I have seen as high as 0.5% and many between 3%-5% margin. It all depends on your broker.

There have been many discussions on the topic of margin and some argue that too much margin is dangerous. This is a point for the individual concerned. The important thing to remember as with all trading is that you thoroughly understand your brokers policies on the subject and you are comfortable with and understand your risk.

Rollovers

Even though the mighty US dominates many markets most of Spot Forex is still traded through London in Great Britain. So for our next description we shall use London time. Most deals in Forex are done as Spot deals. Spot deals are nearly always due for settlement two business days day later. This is referred to as the value date or delivery date. On that date the counterparties take delivery of the currency they have sold or bought.

In Spot FX the majority of the time the end of the business day is 21:59 (London time). Any positions still open at this time are automatically rolled over to the next business day, which again finishes at 21:59. This is necessary to avoid the actual delivery of the currency. As Spot FX is predominantly speculative most of the time the trades never wish to actually take delivery of the actual currency. They will instruct the brokerage to always rollover their position. Many of the brokers nowadays do this automatically and it will be in their polices and procedures. The act of rolling the currency pair over is known as tom.next which, stands for tomorrow and the next day. Just to go over this again, your broker will automatically rollover your position unless you instruct him that you actually want delivery of the currency. Another point noting is that most leveraged accounts are unable to actual deliver of the currency as there is insufficient capital there to cover the transaction.

Remember that if you are trading on margin, you have in effect got a loan from your broker for the amount you are trading. If you had a 1 lot position you broker has advanced you the $100,000 even though you did not actually have $100,000. The broker will normally charge you the interest differential between the two currencies if you rollover your position. This normally only happens if you have rolled over the position and not if you open and close the position within the same business day.

To calculate the broker's interest he will normally close your position at the end of the business day and again reopen a new position almost simultaneously. You open a 1 lot ($100,000) EUR/USD position on Monday 15th at 11:00 at an exchange rate of 0.9950. During the day the rate fluctuates and at 22:00 the rate is 0.9975. The broker closes your position and reopens a new position with a different value date. The new position was opened at 0.9976 a 1 pip difference. The 1 pip deference reflects the difference in interest rates between the US Dollar and the Euro. In our example your are long Euro and short US Dollar. As the US Dollar in the example has a higher interest rate than the Euro you pay the premium of 1 pip.

Now the good news. If you had the reverse position and you were short Euors and long US Dollars you would gain the interest differential of 1 pip. If the first named currency has an overnight interest rate lower than the second currency then you will pay that interest differential if you bought that currency. If the first named currency has a higher interest rate than the second currency then you will gain the interest differential.

To simplify the above. If you are long (bought) a particular currency and that currency has a higher overnight interest rate you will gain. If you are short (sold) the currency with a higher overnight interest rate then you will lose the difference.

I would like to emphasis here that although we are going a little in-depth to explain how all this works, your broker will calculate all this for you. The purpose of this book is just to give you an overview of how the forex market works.

Accounts

Although the movement today is towards all transaction eventually finishing in a profit and loss in US Dollars it is important to realize that your profit or loss may not actually be in US Dollars. From my observation the trend is more pronounced in the US as you would expect. Most US based traders assume they will see their balance at the end of each day in US Dollars. I have even spoken with some traders who are oblivious to the fact the their profit might have actually been in Japanese Yen.

Let me explain a little more. You sell (go short) USD/JPY and as such are short USD and Long (bought) JPY. You enter the trade at 116.10 and exit 116.90. You in fact made 80,000 Japanese Yen (1 lot traded) not US Dollars. If you traded all four major currencies against the US Dollar you would in fact have made or lose in EUR, GPY, JPY and CHF. This might give you a ledger balance at the end of the day or month with four different currencies. This is common in London. They will stay in that currency until you instruct the broker to exchange the currency you have a profit or loss into your own base currency. This actually happened to me. After dealing with mainly US based brokers it had never occurred to me that my statement would be in anything other than US Dollars. This can work for you or against you depending on the rate of exchange when you change back into your home currency. Once I knew the convention I simply instructed the broker to change my profit or loss into US Dollars when I closed my position. It is worth checking how your broker approaches this and simply ask them how they handle it. A small point but worth noting.

It's a sad fact that for many years the forex market largely remained unregulated. Even today there are many countries that still don't regulate companies that trade forex. London has been regulated for many years and the US is now getting its act together and has also started regulating companies dealing forex. It was only recently in the US you could with no more than an Internet site and a few thousand dollars set up your own forex operation and give the impression that you were larger than you are. I am all for the entrepreneurial flair and everyone need to start somewhere but when dealing with people's money it is imperative that the company you choose is solid.

Preferably you want a company that is regulated in the country that it operates, insured or bonded and has some kind of track recorded. I cannot advise you on which broker you should use as there are just to many variables to each person, but as a rule of thumb, nearly all countries have some kind of regulatory authority who will be able to advise you. Most of the regulatory authorities will have a list of brokers that fall with their jurisdiction and will give you a list. They probably wont tell whom to use but at least if the list came from them you can have some confidence in those companies. Once you have a list give a few of them a call, see who you feel comfortable with, ask for them to send you their polices and procedures. If you live near where your broker is based, go spend the day with him. I have been to many brokerages just to check them out. It will give you a chance to see their operation and meet their team.

This brings up another interesting point. When you open an account with a broker you will have to fill in some forms basically stating your acceptance of their polices. This can range from a 1 page document to something resembling a book. Take the time to read through these documents and make a list of things you don't understand or want explained. Most reputable companies will be happy to spend some time with you on this. Your involvement with your broker is largely up to you. As a forex trader you will probably spend long hours staring at the screen without talking to anyone. You may be the sort of person who likes this or you may be the sort of person who likes to chat with the dealer in the trading room. You will normally get a call once a week or once a month from someone in the brokerage asking if everything is OK.

Statements

Before we move on to account statements I just want to touch on segregation of funds. In times past there was a danger that traders who deposited money with their broker who did not segregate their clients money from their own companies money were at some risk. The problem arose if the broker misused the deposited funds to either reinvest or otherwise manipulated these deposits to enhance their own standing. There were also instances were the broker became insolvent and many complications ensued as to what was the clients money and what was the broker's money. With the advent of regulation most broker now segregate their clients funds from the brokerage funds. Deposits are normally held with banks or other large financial institution that are also regulated and bonded or insured. This protects you money should anything happen to your broker. The deposit taking institution is normally aware that these deposits are client's funds. Depending on regulation in the particular country you live, each client may have their own segregated account or for smaller depositors they may be pooled. The point is that segregation of funds is a safeguard. Ask your broker if your funds are segregated and who actually has your money.

Just as with a bank you should are entitled to interest on the money you have on deposit. Some broker may stipulate that interest is only payable on accounts over a certain amount but the trend today is that you will earn interest on any amount you have that is not being used to cover your margin. Your broker is probably not the most competitive place to earn interest but that should not be the point of having your money with him in the first place. Payment on your account that is not being used and segregation of funds all go to show the reputability of the company you are dealing with.

In this section I will discuss briefly the basic account statement. I have to keep this basic as there are as many flavours of account statements as you can imagine. Just about every broker has their own way of presenting this. The most important thing is to know where you stand at the end of each day or week. Just because your broker is Internet based and has all the bells and whistles does not mean they are infallible. Many of the actions taken before information is imputed are still done by hand and if humans are involved there will be a mistake at some point. The responsibility lies with you. It is your money so make sure that all the transactions are correct.

FX Some Company New York Statement for: Mr. Joe Bloggs Statement Date: 16th July 2002 Account No: 123456 Summary Of All Trades From: 15/07/02-17/07/02 Ticket No Time Trade Date Value Date B/S Symbol Quantity Rate Debit Credit Balance
123458 09:05 15/07/2002 17/07/02 B EUR/USD 100,000 0.9850 . . $10,000
123459 13:01 15/07/2002 17/07/02 S EUR/USD 100,000 0.9870 . $200.00 $10,200
123460 14:05 16/07/2002 18/07/02 S USD/JPY 100,000 116.85 . . $10,200
Total Equity $10,200
Margin Available $9,200
Margin Requirements $1,000
Current Position Short USD/JPY

Normally there is a ticket or docket number to help identify the trade. You will nearly always find the time and date of the trade. The value date if the currency were to be delivered. You should always see the direction of the trade, buy or sell (Long or Short). The amount and rate you bought or sold. Balance to let you know if you made a profit or a loss. You should also see any open positions you may have and the margin requirements for that position. A lot of the more modern systems will show your open position as though it has been closed just to give you an up to the minute balance.

The Main Players

Central Banks And Governments

Policies that are implemented by governments and central banks can play a major roll in the FX market. Central banks can play an important part in controlling the country's money supply to insure financial stability.

Banks

A large part of FX turnover is from banks. Large banks can literally trade billions of dollars daily. This can take the form of a service to their customers or they themselves speculate on the FX market.

Hedge Funds

As we know the FX market can be extremely liquid which is why it can be desirable to trade. Hedge Funds have increasingly allocated portions of their portfolios to speculate on the FX market. Another advantage Hedge Funds can utilize is a much higher degree of leverage than would typically be found in the equity markets.

Corporate Businesses

The FX market mainstay is that of international trade. Many companies have to import or exports goods to different countries all around the world. Payment for these goods and services may be made and received in different currencies. Many billions of dollars are exchanges daily to facilitate trade. The timing of those transactions can dramatically affect a company's balance sheet.

The Man In The Street

Although you may not think it the man in the street also plays a part in toady's FX world. Every time he goes on holiday overseas he normally need to purchase that country's currency and again change it back into his own currency once he returns. Unwittingly he is in fact trading currencies. He may also purchase goods and services whilst overseas and his credit card company has to convert those sales back into his base currency in order to charge him.

Speculators And Investors

We shall differentiate speculator from investors here with the definition that an investor has a much longer time horizon in which he expects his investment to yield a profit. Regardless of the difference both speculators and investors will approach the FX market to exploit the movement in currency pairs. They both will have their reason for believing a particular currency will perform better or worse as the case may be and will buy or sell accordingly. They may decide that the Euro will appreciate against the US Dollar and take what is called a long position in Euro. If the Euro does in fact gain ground against the US Dollar they will have made a profit.

What Next

Well now we have a basic understanding of how the FX market works and who the main players are, what next? You are now going to have to decide the best way to trade the market. The two most common approaches are that of fundamental analysis and technical analysis.

Fundamental analysis concentrates on the forces of supply and demand for a given security. This approach examines all the factors that determine the price of a security and the real value of that security. This is referred to as the intrinsic value. If the intrinsic value is below the market price then there is an opportunity to buy and if the market is above the intrinsic price then there is an opportunity to sell.

Technical analysis is the study of market action, mainly through the use of charts and indicators to forecast the future price of a security. There are three main points that a technical analyst applies. A. Market action discounts everything. Regardless of what the fundamentals are saying, the price you see is the price you get. B. The price of a given security moves in trends. C. The historical trend of a security will tend to repeat.

Of all of the above things the most important of them is point A. The tools of the technical analyst are indicators, patterns and systems. These tools are applied to charts. Moving averages, support and resistance lines, envelopes, Bollinger bands and momentum are all examples of indicators.

There are many ways to skin a cat as the saying goes but fundamental and technical analysis are the two most popular ways of trading FX.

My own preferred approach is that of technical analysis. It is beyond the scope if this little book to cover all the finer points of trading and if you would like to learn more then I would suggest your first book should be ''Trading For Beginners'' which you can find at www.tradingforbeginners.com. It is specifically designed for the novice trader wishing to learn more about trading and technical analysis.

Conclusion

I hope you have enjoyed my little ebook introducing you to the Forex market. This book is free and you may freely pass it on to your friends and associates. If you are a webmaster and wish to have the book co branded with your own banners and logos drop me a line at info@wizardoftrading.com

You may wish to join our free trading lessons newsletter at www.wizardoftrading.com Every couple of weeks you will receive a free trading lesson teaching you different techniques on how to trade the markets. Remember caution is the best way forward in trading. Don't risk money you can't afford to lose, don't trade with live cash until you have paper traded for at least three months and control your emotions.

If you have any questions, feel free to drop me a line at the email address above. Until then,

God Bless and good trading.

Free Forex eBook - Read and Learn

Trading the Forex market has became very popular in the last few years. But how difficult is it to achieve success in the Forex trading arena? Or let me rephrase this question, how many traders achieve consistent profitable results trading the Forex market? Unfortunately very few, only 5% of traders achieve this goal. One of the main reasons of this is because Forex traders focus in the wrong information to make their trading decisions and totally forget about the most important factor: Price behavior.

Most Forex trading systems are made off technical indicators (a moving average (MA) crossover, overbought/oversold conditions in an oscillator, etc.) But what are technical indicators? They are just a series of data points plotted in a chart; these points are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given currency pair. In other words, it is a chart of price plotted in a different way that helps us see other aspects of price.

There is an important implication on this definition of technical indicators. The fact that the readings obtained from them are based on price action. Take for instance a long MA crossover signal, the price has gone up enough to make the short period MA crossover the long period MA generating a long signal. Most traders see it as “the MA crossover made the price go up,” but it happened the other way around, the MA crossover signal occurred because the price went up. Where I’m trying to get here is that at the end, price behavior dictates how an indicator will act, and this should be taken into consideration on any trading decision made.

Trading decisions based on technical indicators without taking price action into consideration will give us less accurate results. For example, again a long signal generated by a MA crossover as the market approaches an important resistance level. If the price suddenly starts to bounce back off that important level there is no point on taking this signal, price action is telling us the market doesn’t want to go up. Most of the time, under this circumstances, the market will continue to fall down, disregarding the MA crossover.

Don’t get me wrong here, technical indicators are a very important aspect of trading. They help us see certain conditions that are otherwise difficult to see by watching pure price action. But when it comes to pull the trigger, price action incorporation into our Forex trading system will definitely put the odds in our favor, it will generate higher probability trades.

So, how to create a perfect Forex trading system?
First of all, you need to make sure your trading system fits your trading personality; otherwise you will find it hard to follow it. Every trader has different needs and goals, thus there is no system that perfectly fits all traders. You need to make your own research on various trading styles and technical indicators until you find a concept that perfectly works for you. Make sure you know the nature of whatever technical indicator used.

Secondly, incorporate price action into your system. So you only take long signals if the price behavior tells you the market wants to go up, and short signals if the market gives you indication that it will go down.

Third, and most importantly, you need to have the discipline to follow your Forex trading system rigorously. Try it first on a demo account, then move on to a small account and finally when feeling comfortably and being consistent profitable apply your system in a regular account.

About the author:
Raul Lopez is a full time Forex trader and founder of www.straightforex.coma high quality Forex training company.

Free Forex eBook - Read and Learn

Free Forex eBook - Read and Learn

There are many benefits and advantages to trading Forex. Here are just a few
reasons why so many people are choosing this market as a business
opportunity:

1. LEVERAGE: In Forex trading, a small margin deposit can control a much
larger total contract value. Leverage gives the trader the ability to make
extraordinary profits and at the same time keep risk capital to a minimum. Some
Forex firms offer 200 to 1 leverage, which means that a $50 dollar margin
deposit would enable a trader to buy or sell $10,000 worth of currencies.
Similarly, with $500 dollars, one could trade with $100,000 dollars and so on.

2. LIQUIDITY: Because the Forex Market is so large, it is also extremely liquid.
This means that with a click of a mouse you can instantaneously buy and sell at
will. You are never 'stuck' in a trade. You can even set the online trading
platform to automatically close your position at your desired profit level (limit
order), and/or close a trade if a trade is going against you (stop order).

3. PROFIT IN BOTH 'RISING' AND 'FALLING' MARKETS: On the stock
markets, you can only make money if shares are rising, but in economic
recession and falling 'bear' markets, there is little chance of making big money.
Forex is different. One of the most exciting advantages of FX trading is the ability
to generate profits whether a currency pair is 'up' or 'down'. A trader can profit
by taking a 'long' position, (buying the currency pair at one price and selling it
later at a higher price), or a 'short' position, (selling the currency pair and buying
it back at a lower price). For example, if you think the US dollar will increase in
value vs. the Japanese Yen then you will buy Dollars and sell Yen (go long). If
you think the Yen will increase in value against the Dollar then you will sell
Dollars and buy yen (go short). As long as the trader picks the right direction, a
potential for profit always exists.

4. 24 HRS: From Sunday evening to Friday Afternoon EST the Forex market
never sleeps. This is very desirable for those who want to trade on a part-time
basis, because you can choose when you want to trade--morning, noon or night.

5. FREE 'DEMO' ACCOUNTS, NEWS, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS: Most Online
Forex firms offer free 'Demo' accounts to practice trading, along with breaking
Forex news and charting services. These are very valuable resources for traders
who would like to hone their trading skills with 'virtual' money before opening a
live trading account.

6. 'MINI' TRADING: One might think that getting started as a currency trader
would cost a lot of money. The fact is, it doesn't. Online Forex Firms now offer
'mini' trading accounts with a minimum account deposit of only $200-$500 with
no commission trading. This makes Forex much more accessible to the average
individual, without large, start-up capital.

Please visit the author's other trading sites to learn more about forex trading:

http://www.daytrade-forex.com
http://www.daytradeforex.com
http://www.daytradeforex.com/products.htm
http://www.professionalforextrading.info
http://www.professionalforextradingonline.info
http://www.successtrading2000.com
http://www.successtrading2000.com/forex
http://www.tradecurrency.ca/education.htm
http://www.shortterminvestingsite.com

About the author:
My name is Cynthia Macy and I've been trading various markets for over 12 years. I now concentrate on the forex market, as it has several advantages over trading
other markets. If you'd like to learn more about forex trading, visit:

http://www.daytrade-forex.com

Request the 'Trade of the Week' to see actual trades using our trading methods and strategies.

Free Forex eBook - Read and Learn

Forex trading is one of the best business opportunities you can think of joining these days. No other market in the world allows the “Leverage” that the profitable world of currency-trading does. Leverage is all about margin trading. In the Forex market, it is essentially the ratio of the amount used in a trade to the required security deposit needed, by the particular broker you chose to use, for that trade.

Normally, for most brokerages, a margin deposit of just $1,000 allows you to control a $100,000 position in the Forex market. That's 100:1 leverage, or 1%. Or, said in a different way, a “regular full-sized account”, sometimes referred to as a 100k account, allows you to trade with lot sizes equal to $100,000. Each lot is worth $100,000 in currency. So It would only require $1,000 to trade one lot.

This great feature in Forex trading is what makes this market the hottest market to trade in right now. The Forex broker has given you a loan of $99,000 dollars secured only by your $1,000! This is a huge loan and, as you may know by now, this is what allows traders to make extraordinary incomes in this market. And, as you also are probably used to hearing , "leverage is a two-edged sword" , it is what can cause you to lose a lot of money if you trade without rules or Stop-loss orders.

But just as an example, let's say you were a person that likes to trade with reckless abandon, i.e., with no strategy, no common sense, no money- management principles, etc. That’s never recommended for anyone, but being a Forex trader has such great advantages, that even someone with a trading mind like the one described before, will never lose more than what he has placed into a trade.

Unlike Futures (Commodity Trading), the market that most people associate with High leverage, you can never have a debit balance when trading Forex.

So, despite the greater leverage associated with FX trading, it is still arguably less risky than futures trading. Futures markets are often prone to sudden and dramatic moves, against which you can’t protect yourself, even by trading with protective stops. Your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you’ll be liable for any resulting deficit in the account. But because of the Forex markets great liquidity and 24-hour, continuous trading, dangerous trading gaps and limit moves are very unprobable. Orders are executed quickly, without slippage or partial fills, which is just great.

And as it was not enough, there are no margin calls, for your protection, the forex broker's trading platform will automatically close out some or all of your open positions if your account equity, meaning the total floating value of the account, falls below the level required to hold the positions. Think of this as a final, automatic stop, always working on your behalf to prevent a debit balance.

About the author:
Adrian Pablo; Forex trader and freelance writer.

You can download a free Fibonacci trading report at his website.

Free Forex eBook - Read and Learn

Online trading is great way for serious investors to make money, but inexperienced traders often wind up with big losses. A good set of instructions can minimize the risks and save months of expensive trial-and-error learning.

Day Trading

Day Trading had its heyday during the bull market of the 1990's. All the amateurs have since dropped out, but day trading is still being practiced by professionals. There are fewer opportunities in the current market, but skilled investors can still find them if they know what to look for.

FOREX Trading

The Foreign Exchange Market (FOREX), the world's largest financial exchange market, originated in 1973. It has a daily turnover of currency worth more than $1.2 trillion dollars.

Unlike many other securities, FOREX does not trade on a fixed exchange rate; instead, currencies are traded primarily between central banks, commercial banks, various non-banking international corporations, hedge funds, personal investors and not to forget, speculators. Previously, smaller investors were excluded from FOREX due to the huge amount of deposit involved. This was changed in 1995, and now smaller investors can trade alongside the multi-nationals. As a result, the number of traders within the FOREX market has grown rapidly, and many FOREX courses are appearing to help individual traders increase their skills.

As a matter of fact, it's advisable to take FOREX training even before opening a trading account.
It is vital to know the market mechanics of FOREX, leveraging in FOREX, rollovers and the analysis of the FOREX market. Due to this fact, potential FOREX traders would do well to either enroll in a FOREX training courses or even purchase some books regarding FOREX trading.

There are pros and cons to enrolling into a FOREX course. For beginners a FOREX course is a rapid method of learning the basics of FOREX trading. Not much time is spent on history of the market or arcane economic theories. Often, on-line or phone support from a skilled FOREX trader is available to answer any questions. Also, the information is condensed and practical, often with graphs and charts.

The disadvantage is the price, as courses are more expensive than a paperback from the bookstore. Also,
the course may just teach the approach of the trader who wrote it, and individuals have different trading strategies. The student may grow accustomed to the logic and focus of the teacher without coming to realise that nothing is predictable in the FOREX market, and many different strategies will bring profits in varying market circumstances. Also, knowledge of practical applications may not be enough, as the FOREX is highly unpredictable and there are many external factors, such as political issues, affecting the flow of finances in the market.

The best advice would be to do some background research on the FOREX market first, and then enroll in a course.

About the author:
Frank Hague has always been interested in the Stock Market. http://www.forex-now.info- http://www.lazytrader.com- http://www.business-software-now.info- http://www.accounting-software-now.info

Most forex brokers do not charge commissions. GFT Forex Brokers, like other forex brokers, are compensated by revenues from their activities as currency dealers, including proceeds from buying, selling, converting and holding currencies, interest on deposited funds, and rollover fees.

Many may wonder how brokers work without commissions. The forex dealer is like a middleman. Let's consider the case of a bread middleman. He buys bread at a “wholesale” price and he sells it at a “retail” price. So if one is a baker, he can ask the middleman how much he would buy his bread for. Let's say the middleman quotes $1, so he's willing to pay $1 per loaf.

On the other side of the equation, let's say you just finished his last slice of bread, and you needs a new loaf. So you call up the local middleman, and ask him how much he's willing to sell you (a customer) a loaf of bread for. And he quotes the baker $1.25. That sounds reasonable, so you tell him to drop one off for you.

In this example, the bread middleman didn't charge you a commission to either the baker or you, the customer. Instead he bought at one price and sold at another. He will let you buy from him at $1.25, and let you sell to him at $1. So every time the baker has bread to sell, he checks the middleman's sell price. And when you want to buy a loaf of bread, you check the buy price.
In trading, this is known as the “bid” and “ask”. The bid is the price you can sell at, and the ask is the price you can buy at.

Considering forex broker commissions, the forex dealer will let the trader buy from him at 1.1971 and will let the trader sell to him at 1.1967. The difference 0.0004 is known as the spread. And this spread is where the forex “middleman” makes his money.

If the trader were to buy at 1.1971, then the instant the trader buys, he is “down” 0.0004, because if the trader wanted out of the trade, the best price he could sell it for is 1.1967. So as the forex dealer takes varying trades from people, each buying or selling, he can make money from this price gap. Each minimum increment, 0.0001 is referred to as a “pip”. So the spread in this example is 4 pips. In terms of dollars, for a forex contract of $100,000, this transaction would cost you $40 ($100,000 x 0.0004) or 4 pips. So the trader will find that some companies will advertise a spread of 3 pips on some currencies, usually ranging up to five on others. In forex trading, the tighter the spread is, the better.

About the author:
Forex Broker Info provides detailed information on forex brokers, forex trading and market makers, and other forex-related topics. Forex Broker Info is the sister site of Incorporating in Florida Web.

A lot of interest has been generated recently in FOREX trading, hailed by some as the great new investment opportunity. There are even companies running TV infomercials, offering sure fire systems that will bring massive profits in an easy fashion.


So what is forex? Is it something new? The exchange of currencies is said by some to be the world's second oldest profession and as long as there have been two sovereign states that have issued their own currencies, there has been foreign exchange as a facilitator for trade.


Forex, as foreign exchange has been abbreviated to, has been conducted for centuries and has become a global market with a daily turnover according to a recent Bank for International Settlements survey of $1.9 trillion (billion, billion) per day. Essentially it is a global market place with no physical exchange building where all claims on foreign currencies are settled - between governments, corporations, investors and speculators among others. Banks have traditionally been the middlemen who provide the liquidity to this gigantic market, which incidentally is traded on an almost continuous 24-hour basis.


Then came the Internet and suddenly it became possible for everyone to get a piece of the speculative action. Brokers sprouted up with their electronic trading platforms and high 'leverage'. Essentially the brokers lend clients funds to speculate with, 100:1 or in some cases up to 400:1 ratio, or leverage. This means that $10,000 can 'control' up to $4,000,000 in the market. This is far higher than is possible in the stock market.


Many people have been attracted to the possibilities of earning fast profits from forex. There are often sharp movements that can turn your $10,000 to $20,000 in a matter of minutes. You can also get wiped out, but the lure of a fast buck has turned would-be speculators into out-and-out gamblers.
The Internet has also made it possible for the individual to obtain so-called 'charts', that allow them to do 'technical analysis' on their own PCs. The theory is that price movement patterns repeat themselves, so if you have a system of analysis, you can predict a future move in the market.


This may well be the case, but it does not address the problems of the psychology of trading - the fear and greed that drives many to irrational behaviour. People are often taken in by the seller of a system, often paying $5,000 for a piece of software that shows a green light to buy and a red light to sell. However, they don't tell you how to manage your money.


So speculators lose. It has been estimated that 90% of new investors in forex lose their capital in the first year - an appalling figure. What can one do to avoid being a victim? Well, forex is a business like any other business and planning is required. It is also a profession and as such, adequate training is necessary so that you understand fully what forex trading is all about.


Many are prepared to invest thousands in forex trading without really knowing what it is all about. Just think if franchises were offered in a major hamburger chain without the franchisees having a clue how to run a restaurant or even make the burgers. The failure rate would also probably be 90%!
As with all investing, it is all a matter of risk and reward. Investing in Government securities is considered low risk, therefore they carry the lowest return. Increase the risk (the probability of loss on the investment), the higher an investor is rewarded in terms of return. An individual trading forex decides his own level of risk, which should dictate the level of reward. However, in the hands of an inexperienced trader, the two factors are impossible to reconcile, meaning in stark terms that traders cannot control the risk or the reward levels.


People attracted to forex trading often have an unrealistic expectation of what can be earned. To start with an investment of $5,000 and expect to be making $100,000 a year after the first year is unrealistic. It is not impossible; then again, neither is winning the lottery.
If the parameters for trading are laid down and adhered to combined with knowledge of forex trading, success is possible. It does not take much in the way of 'enhanced' returns to be able to double an investment. 26% per annum is required to double your investment within 3 years.


Who is going to teach you? There are some very good courses available, but these will only give you the theory, in itself very important. The ideal way is to have a mentor, or guide to show you the way.
Getting mentored is a wise move because it makes it possible to draw on the experience of a veteran expert and avoid making the common mistakes that cause the unwary to suffer catastrophic losses. After a while under guidance, a forex trader will gain the experience


The bottom line is that forex is not in itself a scam. There are for sure scam artists who prey on individuals' greed as there are in any other business. If it is approached in a sensible and realistic manner and the trader is prepared to work hard, forex can provide a good living both financially and materially.

About the author:
Steve Pickering is founder and owner of Forex Trader Mentor and has been engaged in the forex markets since 1971.
www.forextradermentor.com

Free Forex eBook - Read and Learn

Forex trading online is a fast way to use your investment capital to it's fullest. The Forex markets offer distinct advantages to the small and large traders alike, making Forex currency trading in many ways preferable to other markets such as stocks, options or traditional futures. Here are seven reasons why you'll want to look into Forex Trading online.

1 - Forex is the largest market.
Forex trading volume of more than 1.9 billion, more than 3 times larger than the equities market and more than 5 times bigger than futures, give Forex traders nearly unlimited liquidity and flexibility.

2 - Forex never sleeps!
You can execute forex trading online 24/7, from 7AM New Zealand time on Monday morning, to 5PM New York time on Friday evening. No waiting for markets to open: they're open all night! This makes Forex trading online a very attractive component that fits easily into your day (or night!)

3 - No Bulls or Bears!
Because Forex trading online involves the buying of one currency while simultaneously selling another, you have an equal opportunity for profit no matter which direction the currency is headed. Another advantage is that there are only around 14 pairs of currencies to trade, as opposed to many thousands of stocks, options and futures.

4 - Forex Trading online offers great leverage!
You can make the most of your investment resources with Forex trading online. Some brokers offer 200:1 margin ratios in your trading accounts. Mini-FX accounts, which can typically be opened with only $200-300, offer 0.5% margin, meaning that $50 in trading capital can control a 10,000 unit currency position. This is why people are flocking to Forex trading online as a way to highly leverage their investments.

5 - Forex prices are predictable.
Currency prices, though volatile, tend to create and follow trends, allowing the technically trained Forex trader to spot and take advantage of many entry and exit points.

6 - Forex trading online is commission free!
That's right! No commissions, no exchange fees or any other hidden fees. This is a very transparent market, and you'll find it very easy to research the currencies and the countries involved. Forex brokers make a small percentage of the bid/ask spread, and that's it. No longer any need to compute commissions and fees when executing a trade.

7 - Forex trading online is instant!
The FX market is astoundingly fast! Your orders are executed, filled and confirmed usually within 1-2 seconds. Since this is all done electronically with no humans involved, there is little to slow it down!

Forex trading online can get you where you want to go quicker and more profitably than any other form of trading. Check it out and see what Forex trading online can do for you!

About the author:
Keith Thompson is the webmaster of http://www.forex-trading-today.com,a site focusing on the latest Forex news and resources.

Should new Forex traders take Forex trading courses or join a Forex training program? Definitely yes; by now you have probably heard that only 5% of traders achieve consistent profitable results when trading the Forex market. The main reason for this is the lack of education. Don’t get me wrong here, taking a Forex training program or a Forex trading course won’t guarantee profitable results, nothing can, but choosing the right Forex training program or Forex trading course will definitely put the odds in your favor.

Before spending any amount of money on any Forex trading course or Forex training program there are some important aspects you need to take in consideration. There are many training programs available, but not every one of them suits the needs of every trader.

The first thing you should be looking in a Forex training program is the content of the material. Unfortunately, most courses or training programs focus or spend most of the time on basic concepts. Though these basic concepts are important, spending most of the course on them won’t help the trader to make consistent results.

The following subjects are what I consider the most important aspects of trading and every training program or trading course should address:

Forex trading basics.
Review basic concepts such as: margin, type of orders, a little background, bid/ask, rollover, etc. You need to make sure you understand every single concept to perfection.

Main drawbacks of Forex traders.
Being aware of the common mistakes made by Forex traders and knowing how to handle them will prevent new traders from making those mistakes.

Technical and fundamental analysis.
These are the two main approaches adopted by Forex traders. Knowing how to properly apply each concept will definitely put the odds in your favor.

The three pillars of Forex trading. I consider that these three subjects have the most impact on every trader trading account.

Forex trading system development.
Having the right system is a must if you want to have consistent profitable results. Having a system that doesn’t fit you will cause a series of problems that will make your trading account vanish away (second guessing the system, not following your system, etc.)

Money management.
This is considered by many successful traders to be the most important single aspect of trading. Money management helps to increase your profits geometrically and at the same time limit your losses (i.e. a good risk reward ratio of about 2:1 will make you money in a Forex trading system that is right only 38% of the time.)

Trading psychology.
Being aware and knowing hot to handle the psychological barriers that affect every trader decision will put the odds in your favor.

Other important aspects every training program should include are:
Developing habits for success (such as discipline patience, taking responsibility of every action, commitment, etc.,) understanding and taking our trading as a business, risk and trade management.

Another important aspect you should take into consideration when choosing a Forex training program is the mechanics of it, getting to know how the training program works.

A good course will have the following:

A live conference room, where you can apply everything learned under live market conditions.

One-on-one feedback, every trader has different needs and requires special attention. For instance a trader wanting to improve the system and requires individual feedback from the instructor about it.

Online trading course, a course that could be accessible through internet. A plus is a course where you are able to access the course at the convenient time for you, so you don’t have to change your lifestyle.

A forum, where members can talk just about everything related to the Forex market and the Forex training program.

Trading the Forex market is no easy task. It requires a lot of hard work. Making the right decision will definitely put the odds in your favor. Take your time when doing your diligence because it is a big and important step in a trader’s trading career.

About the author:
Raul Lopez is a full time Forex trader and founder of http://www.straightforex.coma high quality Forex training company.

Once you have decided to enter the Forex trading world, one of the first things you will have to do is downloading the trading station provided by your chosen forex broker for free. When you open your trading station software, you will find there are two main ways to enter a market or, said in another way, there are two ways to place an initial order to buy or sell any currency pair.

“Market order”; this is an order to buy or sell a currency pair at the market price the instant that the order is received and processed (within seconds of hitting the "OK" button on your screen). When a market order is placed, you are simply saying "I'll buy or sell the currency pair at whatever price it is at when my order gets processed."

“Entry order”; this is an order to buy or sell a currency pair when it reaches a certain price target. This can be any price in theory. You could set an entry order for the low price of a time period, or the high price of a time period. As an example, one usual recommendation is that you must always set an entry order to be the same price as the ‘open price” of the time period. When you place an “entry order” to buy, for example, you are simply saying "I want to buy this currency pair at a certain price, if it never reaches that price, I don't want to purchase the pair."

After your “entry order” is placed, you can set a stop and/or limit order if you desire, and for your own security. Stop and Limit orders are two different ways to exit a trade, automatically (i.e., without closing out your position via the click of your mouse - manually), after the trade is entered.

A “stop order” (something I will always recommend you) is used to stop losses. A “limit order” (recommended if you can't monitor your open trade) is used to redeem profits. Where these orders are placed, in relation to your open trade, depends on the direction of the entry order.

Remember; a “stop order” is always placed below the current market value of that currency pair when you are in a long (buy) trade. And a “limit order” is always placed above the current market value of that currency pair when you are in a long (buy) trade.

About the author:
Adrian Pablo; Forex trader and freelance writer
http://www.1-forex.com

It is useful to have a map and be able to see where the price is relative to previous market action. This way we can see how is the sentiment of traders and investors at any given moment, it also gives us a general idea of where the market is heading during the day. This information can help us decide which way to trade.

Pivot points, a technique developed by floor traders, help us see where the price is relative to previous market action.

As a definition, a pivot point is a turning point or condition. The same applies to the Forex market, the pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of the market changes from “bull” to “bear” or vice versa. If the market breaks this level up, then the sentiment is said to be a bull market and it is likely to continue its way up, on the other hand, if the market breaks this level down, then the sentiment is bear, and it is expected to continue its way down. Also at this level, the market is expected to have some kind of support/resistance, and if price can’t break the pivot point, a possible bounce from it is plausible.

Pivot points work best on highly liquid markets, like the spot currency market, but they can also be used in other markets as well.

Pivot Points

In a few words, pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of traders and investors changes from bull to bear or vice versa.

Why PP work?
They work simply because many individual traders and investors use and trust them, as well as bank and institutional traders. It is known to every trader that the pivot point is an important measure of strength and weakness of any market.

Calculating pivot points
There are several ways to arrive to the Pivot point. The method we found to have the most accurate results is calculated by taking the average of the high, low and close of a previous period (or session).

Pivot point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3

Take for instance the following EUR/USD information from the previous session:

Open: 1.2386
High: 1.2474
Low: 1.2376
Close: 1.2458

The PP would be,
PP = (1.2474 + 1.2376 + 1.2458) / 3 = 1.2439

What does this number tell us?
It simply tells us that if the market is trading above 1.2439, Bulls are winning the battle pushing the prices higher. And if the market is trading below this 1.2439 the bears are winning the battle pulling prices lower. On both cases this condition is likely to sustain until the next session.

Since the Forex market is a 24hr market (no close or open from day to day) there is a eternal battle on deciding at white time we should take the open, close, high and low from each session. From our point of view, the times that produce more accurate predictions is taking the open at 00:00 GMT and the close at 23:59 GMT.

Besides the calculation of the PP, there are other support and resistance levels that are calculated taking the PP as a reference.

Support 1 (S1) = (PP * 2) – H
Resistance 1 (R1) = (PP * 2) - L
Support 2 (S2) = PP – (R1 – S1)
Resistance 2 (R2) = PP + (R1 – S1)

Where , H is the High of the previous period and L is the low of the previous period

Continuing with the example above, PP = 1.2439

S1 = (1.2439 * 2) - 1.2474 = 1.2404
R1 = (1.2439 * 2) – 1.2376 = 1.2502
R2 = 1.2439 + (1.2636 – 1.2537) = 1.2537
S2 = 1.2439 – (1.2636 – 1.2537) = 1.2537

These levels are supposed to mark support and resistance levels for the current session.

On the example above, the PP was calculated using information of the previous session (previous day.) This way we could see possible intraday resistance and support levels. But it can also be calculated using the previous weekly or monthly data to determine such levels. By doing so we are able to see the sentiment over longer periods of time. Also we can see possible levels that might offer support and resistance throughout the week or month. Calculating the Pivot point in a weekly or monthly basis is mostly used by long term traders, but it can also be used by short time traders, it gives us a good idea about the longer term trend.

S1, S2, R1 AND R2...? An Objective Alternative

As already stated, the pivot point zone is a well-known technique and it works simply because many traders and investors use and trust it. But what about the other support and resistance zones (S1, S2, R1 and R2,) to forecast a support or resistance level with some mathematical formula is somehow subjective. It is hard to rely on them blindly just because the formula popped out that level. For this reason, we have created an alternative way to map our time frame, simpler but more objective and effective.

We calculate the pivot point as showed before. But our support and resistance levels are drawn in a different way. We take the previous session high and low, and draw those levels on today’s chart. The same is done with the session before the previous session. So, we will have our PP and four more important levels drawn in our chart.

LOPS1, low of the previous session.
HOPS1, high of the previous session.
LOPS2, low of the session before the previous session.
HOPS2, high of the session before the previous session.
PP, pivot point.

These levels will tell us the strength of the market at any given moment. If the market is trading above the PP, then the market is considered in a possible uptrend. If the market is trading above HOPS1 or HOPS2, then the market is in an uptrend, and we only take long positions. If the market is trading below the PP then the market is considered in a possible downtrend. If the market is trading below LOPS1 or LOPS2, then the market is in a downtrend, and we should only consider short trades.

The psychology behind this approach is simple. We know that for some reason the market stopped there from going higher/lower the previous session, or the session before that. We don’t know the reason, and we don’t need to know it. We only know the fact: the market reversed at that level. We also know that traders and investors have memories, they do remember that the price stopped there before, and the odds are that the market reverses from there again (maybe because the same reason, and maybe not) or at least find some support or resistance at these levels.

What is important about his approach is that support and resistance levels are measured objectively; they aren’t just a level derived from a mathematical formula, the price reversed there before so these levels have a higher probability of being effective.

Our mapping method works on both market conditions, when trending and on sideways conditions. In a trending market, it helps us determine the strength of the trend and trade off important levels. On sideways markets it shows us possible reversal levels.

How we use our mapping method?
We at StraightForex (www.straightforex.com) use the mapping method in three different ways: as a trend identification (measure of the strength of the trend), a trading system using important levels with price behavior as a trading signal and to set the risk reward ratio (RR) of any given trade based on where the is the market relative to the previous session.

About the author:
Raul Lopez is the founder of www.straightforex.comA site dedicated to provide high quality training for Forex traders.

1 Introduction

In this article we cover the few important rules that should never be broken in trading. If you can apply these rules consistently, and with discipline, you will be well on the way to being a profitable trader.

The rules we cover are:

• Have specific goals and objectives
• Be consistent and disciplined
• Let profits run
• Cut losses short
• Never add to a losing trade
• Don’t take too much risk
• Only trade positive expectancy systems
• Minimize all trading business costs
• Be well educated
• Don’t trade scared money

Each of the rules will now be discussed.

2 The Golden Rules of Trading

The following sections outline a set of rules that can significantly improve your chances of success if they are understood, practiced, and implemented consistently in your trading. These rules have been learned the hard way, by study, research, trial-and-error, and the inevitable mistakes that everyone makes when they start a trading business.

We hope that you can learn from the work we have done, and benefit from our experience. The rules will now be discussed.

2.1 Have specific goals and objectives

Few things are more important to your trading success than having set (i.e. written) goals and objective for what you are aiming to achieve. It is amazing to me how often we hit our targets, meet our objectives, and reach our goals only when we articulate them and write them down.

For any business to be successful it must have measurable objectives that are actually achievable. In trading (obviously) the primary objective is to make money, but it is important to have other objectives that are not purely cash-related. We must always remember that reward and risk go hand-in-hand in trading and that we cannot expect to achieve high returns without planning for high risk (i.e. draw-downs).

Your objectives and goals will be very specific to you, but they must have the following characteristics to be useful:

• Be measurable (in completion and timeframe)
• Be achievable
• Be worthwhile
• Be positive

As an example, here are some of our current objectives (this is only a partial list):

• Develop 2 new positive-expectancy trading systems each year
• Make fewer errors implementing our trading systems each year
• Achieve a return to maximum draw-down ratio of 1.5:1
• Take 2 weeks vacation each year

Note that only one of them is about making money, and that has a measurable objective that is relative to draw-down, not absolute (i.e. make 100% per year). If you know what you are trying to achieve, and when you are trying to achieve it, the whole business will be focused on meeting
your objectives and help guide you to only pay attention to things you really want to achieve with your limited time and resources. This will also give you a way to measure the success and progress of your trading. Generally traders with well-defined objectives will be much more successful than those that do not have pre-defined goals.

2.2 Be consistent and disciplined

In order to realize the full potential of your trading systems it is critical that you take every trading entry, adjust every stop, and close out every trade as and when your system says you should do. This takes extreme confidence in your trading systems, good robust reliable technology, and the mental discipline to stick to your trading plan whatever happens (assuming it is complete).
An underlying assumption about being consistent and disciplined is that you have a pre-defined plan for every situation you may face in your trading, so that you know how you are defining what being consistent is. Your plan needs to include at least the following items:

• All your trading rules for entering, adding to, and exiting positions
• What you will do if your trading computer, internet connection, broker, power, telephone
etc. fails
• What you will do if you are unable to trade
• What you will do if you lose X% of your account
• What you will do if all the markets are closed and you can’t exit your positions

Unless you write the answers down to all these issues, you cannot be consistent and disciplined in your approach to trading and if you lose money you will not know whether it is because you didn’t follow your plan, because your plan is incomplete, because your systems do not work, or simply because you are going through a losing period.

2.3 Let profits run

This simple rule is the key to being a successful trader. It is three simple words that are very hard to actually implement. When we get a profitable trade our natural fear of losing the unrealized cash kicks in and we truly want to close it out now and take the money. Most trading consists of long periods of small winners and losers followed by a few huge winners that make the difference between overall profitability and simply breaking even or losing due to trading costs(commissions, spread, and slippage).

It is our ability to let the huge winners become just that - huge - that determines how we will perform overall during the year. The key to letting winners run is to have trailing stops that are outside the daily noise of the market so that they are not tight enough to get stopped out during ‘normal’ trading. This means being prepared to give up a significant portion of a winning trade’s open profit and is the thing that makes this so hard to implement. In fact, we should be adding to a winner and widening stops rather than working out how tight our stops can be to capture maximum profit. The trade has already shown you that it intends to be a winner, and the chances are it is a low-risk idea to add to the position now rather than ‘strangle it’ with stops that are too tight.

It is very important that your position management rules allow for large winning trades, and that the rules are pre-defined and understood before you place the trade. This will allow you (if you have confidence in your method and discipline) to stick to your rules when you do get the big
winner.

2.4 Cut losses short

This is the sister rule to the previous one, and is usually just as difficult to implement (although it
is very easy to define). In the same way that profitability comes from a few large winning trades, capital preservation comes from avoiding the few large losers that the market will toss your way each year. Setting a maximum loss point before you enter the trade so you know before-hand approximately how much you are risking on this particular position is relatively straightforward. You simply need to have a exit price that says to you ‘this trade is a loser and I will exit before it gets any bigger’. Due to gaps at the open, or limit moves in futures we can never be 100%
certain that we can get out with our maximum loss, but simply having the rules, and always sticking to it will save us from the nasty trades that just keep on going and going against our position until we have lost more than many winning trades can make back.

If you have a losing position that is at you maximum loss point, just get out. Do not hope that it will turn around. Given that trades are either winners or losers, and this one is shouting ‘Loser’ at you, the chances that it will turn around and become a large winner is tiny. Why risk any more money on this losing trade, when you could simply close it out (accept the loss) and move on. This will leave you in a much better place financially and mentally, than holding the position and hoping it will go back your way. Even if it did do this, the mental energy and negative feelings from holding the losing position are not worth it. Always stick to your rules and exit a position if it hits your stop point.

2.5 Never add to a losing trade

One of the few trade management rules that we can state we never break is ‘Never add to a losing trade’. Trades are split into winners and losers, and if a trade is a loser, the chances of it turning right around and becoming a winner are too small to risk more money on. If indeed it is a winner disguised as a loser, why not wait until it shows it’s true colors (and becomes a winner)before you add to it.
If you do this you will notice that nearly always the trade ends up hitting your stop loss and does not look back. Sometimes the trade turns around before it hits your stop and becomes a winner and you can count yourself very fortunate. Sometimes the trade hits your stop loss and then
turns around and becomes a winner and you can count yourself unlucky. Whatever the result, it is never worth adding to a loser, hoping that it will become a winner. The odds of success are just too low to risk more capital in addition to the initial risk.

2.6 Don’t take too much risk

One of the most devastating mistakes any trader can make is risking too much of their capital on a single trade. One thing is certain in trading and that is if you lose all your capital you are out of the game. Why risk so much you could be prevented from continuing? There is a saying in
poker than going all-in (risking all your chips) works every time but once. This is true of trading.

If you risk all your account on every trade it only takes one loser to wipe you out (and no trading method is 100% accurate), so you will be out of the game at some point – it is only a question of time.

In general, we only risk 1-3% of the available capital allocated to a system on any individual trade. This is calculated using the size and, the difference between our entry price and our maximum stop price, and the amount of capital allocated to the system. With the win probability
and ratio of size of winning trades to losing trades we are almost certain never to lose all of our trading capital. In fact, the chance of us hitting our maximum drawdown for the year is tiny.

All trades should be of a size that almost seems insignificant. If you are worried about the size of a trade then it is too big and you should reduce the size immediately. Remember that longevity is the key to making money by trading – slowly over a long time with minimal risk, is always preferable to rapidly with too much risk.

2.7 Only trade positive expectancy systems

If you have a positive expectancy trading system, the only factors that determine how much money you will make per year are the number of trades the system generates, how much capital you allocate to the system, and how accurately you implement the trading signals. If you do not know whether your trading system is positive expectancy then why are you trading it? Expectancy is calculated using the profit or loss on each trade (net of trading implementation
costs) divided by the initial risk (using your stop loss) and then taking the average of this number of a series of trades. Systems that have positive expectancy will make money on average and those with negative expectancy will lose money.

Successful traders only trade systems where the odds of success are in their favor (i.e. the system is positive expectancy) so they know that making money is the result of accurately implementing the system and not just pure luck.

2.8 Minimize all trading business costs

Some trading systems have only marginal profitability, and trading implementation costs (commission, spread, and slippage) can be the difference between profitability and making a loss. With the easy availability of modern electronic brokers, and fully-automated trade processing and
execution, it is definitely worthwhile looking for a very low cost way to implement your trading system. High commission, wide spreads, and large amount of slippage can be reduced considerably simply by carefully choosing a broker. This can be the difference between a system
(especially a high frequency one) being useable or not. Paying too much for trade implementation is an avoidable way to lose money.

2.9 Be educated

In order to compete at the highest level in the trading business and be one of the few truly successful participants you must be well-educated about what you are doing. This does not mean having a degree from a well-respected university – the market doesn’t care where you were educated.

Being well-educated means that you have thoroughly researched and tested your trading ideas and know why your trading system worked in the past and is continuing to work now. It means understanding all the technology and applications that your system needs to perform accurately.
It means understanding your goal and objectives and how trading will achieve these. It means understanding yourself and how your personality affects your results. It means understanding the markets and instruments you trade.
In order to succeed you really need to become an expert in your own trading business to understand how it all fits together, when it is broken, and how it can be improved. As with all worthwhile endeavors, this takes commitment, hard work, dedication, and more hard work.

2.10 Don’t trade scared money

Lastly, no one ever made any money trading when they had to do it to pay the mortgage at the end of the month. Having a requirement to make X dollars per month or you will be financially in trouble is the best way I know to completely mess up all trading discipline, rules, objectives, and
leads quickly to disaster.

Trading is about taking a reasonable risk in order to achieve a good reward. The markets and how and when they give up their profits is not under your control. Do not trade if you need the money to pay bills. Do not trade if your business and personal expenses are not covered by
another income stream or cash reserve. This will only lead to additional unmanageable stress and be very detrimental to your trading performance.

3 Summary

In this article we have covered the rules that we believe should never be broken in trading. If you work on never breaking them, your trading should improve dramatically.

We sincerely hope this information has helped you to improve your trading performance.

Good luck in yout trading.

About the author:
Paul King is owner and head trader of PMKing Trading LLC, a Vermont-based proprietary trading company founded in May 2002. Paul has published a series of eBooks and articles about what he considers to be the important aspects of trading.

Visit www.pmkingtrading.comfor more details.

As you start analyzing forex charts you will realize that the market often display's some very familiar patterns of price movement. Once a pattern is established, it becomes the most probable course of future price action until the market
changes.

There are two types of markets which will become very important for you to identify and understand; these are: trending and trend-less markets. Each market type has two specific patterns which you will also notice over time.

These market types and patterns are defined as follows:

Trending - Steady elongated price movements with less than a 45 degree angel with occasional pauses, profit taking, or resting periods.

In a Trending market, you have also other patterns:

- Uptrends - A pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

- Downtrends - A pattern of lower lows and lower highs.


Trend-less - Erratic price movements which are often steep ( greater than 45 -degree angle ) and cannot sustain and therefore must reverse. Although the movements can move many points in a short period of time, they often result in very little net price movement over time.

In a Trend-less market, you have these patterns:

- Choppy - An erratic pattern of higher highs and lower lows.

- Sideways - A narrow pattern of lower highs and higher lows.

While up-trend and down-trend days can offer excellent trading results, choppy markets often create stop outs, while sideways markets produce for little in either direction making them hard to trade and to make any profit during these periods.

Your trading objective is to get into a trending market and ride the trend until you make your target profit objective.

There are many Trend Trading Strategies that you can find in a number of sources listed in my website. You will learn how to identify and draw your own channel trendlines, support and resistance lines, triangle patterns, chart key top and bottom formations, etc.

Remember, knowledge in the Forex markets is power, and more than power; money.

About the author:
Adrian Pablo; Forex trader and freelance writer.
http://www.1-forex.com

Moving Averages: If you consider the "trend-is-your-friend" statement of technical analysis as a true sentence, the moving averages will be very helpful. Moving averages tell the average price in a given point of time over a defined period of time. They are called moving because they reflect the latest average, while adhering to the same time measure.


A weakness of moving averages is that they lag the market, so they do not necessarily signal a change in trends. To address this issue, using a shorter period, such as 5 or 10 day moving average, would be more reflective of the recent price action than the 40 or 150-day moving averages.


Alternatively, moving averages may be used by combining two averages of distinct time- frames. Whether using 5 and 20-day MA, or 40 and 150-day MA, buy signals are usually detected when the shorter-term average crosses above the longer-term average, i.e. price will likely go up. Conversely, sell signals are suggested when the shorter average falls below the longer one, i.e. price will likely go down.


There are three kind of mathematically distinct moving averages: Simple MA; Linearly Weighted MA; and Exponentially Smoothed. The latter choice is the preferred one because it assigns greater weight for the most recent data, and considers data in the entire life of the instrument making of it a more accurate indicator.



MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence: MACD is a more detailed method of using moving averages to find trading signals from price charts. Developed by Gerald Appel, the MACD plots the difference between a 26-day exponential moving average and a 12-day exponential moving average. A 9- day moving average is generally used as a trigger line, meaning when the MACD crosses below this trigger it is a bearish signal and when it crosses above it, it's a bullish signal, with the corresponding implications for the currency’s price in each particular situation.


As with other studies, traders will look to MACD studies to provide early signals or divergences between market prices and a technical indicator. If the MACD turns positive and makes higher lows while prices are still tanking, this could be a strong buy signal. Conversely, if the MACD makes lower highs while prices are making new highs, this could be a strong bearish divergence and a sell signal.

About the author:
Adrian Pablo; Forex traderand freelance writer.

When it comes to trading, one of the most neglected subjects are those dealing with trading psychology. Most traders spend days, months and even years trying to find the right system. But having a system is just part of the game. Don’t get us wrong, it is very important to have a system that perfectly suits the trader, but it is as important as having a money management plan, or to understand all psychology barriers that may affect the trader decisions and other issues. In order to succeed in this business, there must be equilibrium between all important aspects of trading.

In the trading environment, when you lose a trade, what is the first idea that pops up in your mind? It would probably be, “There must be something wrong with my system”, or “I knew it, I shouldn’t have taken this trade” (even when your system signaled it). But sometimes we need to dig a little deeper in order to see the nature of our mistake, and then work on it accordingly.

When it comes to trading the Forex market as well as other markets, only 5% of traders achieve the ultimate goal: to be consistent in profits. What is interesting though is that there is just a tiny difference between this 5% of traders and the rest of them. The top 5% grow from mistakes; mistakes are a learning experience, they learn an invaluable lesson on every single mistake made. Deep in their minds, a mistake is one more chance to try it harder and do it better the next time, because they know they might not get a chance the next time. And at the end, this tiny difference becomes THE big difference.

Mistakes in the trading environment

Most of us relate a trading mistake to the outcome (in terms of money) of any given trade. The truth is, a mistake has nothing to do with it, mistakes are made when certain guidelines are not followed. When the rules you trade by are violated. Take for instance the following scenarios:

First scenario: The system signals a trade.
1. Signal taken and trade turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade: Positive, made money.
Experience gained: Its good to follow the system, if I do this consistently the odds will turn in my favor. Confidence is gained in both the trader and the system.
Mistake made: None.

2. Signal taken and trade turns out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: Negative, lost money.
Experience gained: It is impossible to win every single trade, a loosing trade is just part of the business; our raw material, we know we can’t get them all right. Even with this lost trade, the trader is proud about himself for following the system. Confidence in the trader is gained.
Mistake made: None.

3. Signal not taken and trade turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade: Neutral.
Experience gained: Frustration, the trader always seems to get in trades that turned out to be loosing trades and let the profitable trades go away. Confidence is lost in the trader self.
Mistake made: Not taking a trade when the system signaled it.

4. Signal not taken and trade turns out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: Neutral.
Experience gained: The trader will start to think “hey, I’m better than my system”. Even if the trader doesn't think on it consciously, the trader will rationalize on every signal given by the system because deep in his or her mind, his or her “feeling” is more intelligent than the system itself. From this point on, the trader will try to outguess the system. This mistake has catastrophic effects on our confidence to the system. The confidence on the trader turns into overconfidence.
Mistake made: Not taking a trade when system signaled it

Second Scenario: System does not signal a trade.
1. No trade is taken
Outcome of the trade: Neutral
Experience gained: Good discipline, we only need to take trades when the odds are in our favor, just when the system signals it. Confidence gained in both the trader self and the system.
Mistake made: None

2. A trade is taken, turns out to be a profitable trade.
Outcome of the trade: Positive, made money.
Experience gained: This mistake has the most catastrophic effects in the trader self, the system and most importantly in the trader’s trading career. You will start to think you need no system, you know better from them all. From this point on, you will start to trade based on what you think. Confidence in the system is totally lost. Confidence in the trader self turns into overconfidence.
Mistake made: Take a trade when there was no signal from the system.

3. A trade is taken, turned out to be a loosing trade.
Outcome of the trade: negative, lost money.
Experience gained: The trader will rethink his strategy. The next time, the trader will think it twice before getting in a trade when the system does not signal it. The trader will go “Ok, it is better to get in the market when my system signals it, only those trade have a higher probability of success”. Confidence is gained in the system.
Mistake made: Take a trade when there was no signal from the system

As you can see, there is absolutely no correlation between the outcome of the trade and a mistake. The most catastrophic mistake even has a positive trade outcome, made money, but this could be the beginning of the end of the trader’s career. As we have already stated, mistakes must only be related to the violation of rules a trader trades by.

All these mistakes were directly related to the signals given by a system, but the same is applied when getting out of a trade. There are also mistakes related to following a trading plan. For example, risking more money on a given trade than the amount the trader should have risked and many more.

Most mistakes can be avoided by first having a trading plan. A trading plan includes the system: the criteria we use to get in and out the market, the money management plan: how much we will risk on any given trade, and many other points. Secondly, and most important, we need to have the discipline to follow strictly our plan. We created our plan when no trade was placed on, thus no psychology barriers were up front. So, the only thing we are certain about is that if we follow our plan, the decision taken is on our best interests, and in the long run, these decisions will help us have better results. We don’t have to worry about isolated events, or trades that could had give us better results at first, but then they could have catastrophic results in our trading career.


How to deal with mistakes

There are many possible ways to properly manage mistakes. We will suggest the one that works better for us.

Step one: Belief change.
Every mistake is a learning experience. They all have something valuable to offer. Try to counteract the natural tendency of feeling frustrated and approach mistakes in a positive manner. Instead of yelling to everyone around and feeling disappointed, say to yourself “ok, I did something wrong, what happened? What is it?

Step two: Identify the mistake made.
Define the mistake, find out what caused the mistake, and try as hard as you can to effectively see the nature of that mistake. Finding the mistake nature will prevent you from making the same mistake again. More than often you will find the answer where you less expected. Take for instance a trader that doesn’t follow the system. The reason behind this could be that the trader is afraid of loosing. But then, why is he or she afraid? It could be that the trader is using a system that does not fit him or her, and finds difficult to follow every signal. In this case, as you can see, the nature of the mistake is not in the surface. You need to try as hard as you can to find the real reason of the given mistake.

Step three: Measure the consequences of the mistake.
List the consequences of making that particular mistake, both good and bad. Good consequences are those that make us better traders after dealing with the mistake. Think on all possible reasons you can learn from what happened. For the same example above, what are the consequences of making that mistake? Well, if you don’t follow the system, you will gradually loose confidence in it, and this at the end will put you into trades you don’t really want to be, and out of trades you should be in.

Step four: Take action.
Taking proper action is the last and most important step. In order to learn, you need to change your behavior. Make sure that whatever you do, you become “this-mistake-proof”. By taking action we turn every single mistake into a small part of success in our trading career. Continuing with the same example, redefining the system would be the trader’s final step. The trader would put a system that perfectly fits him or her, so the trader doesn’t find any trouble following it in future signals.


Understanding the fact that the outcome of any trade has nothing to do with a mistake will open your mind to other possibilities, where you will be able to understand the nature of every mistake made. This at the same time will open the doors for your trading career as you work and take proper action on every mistake made.

The process of success is slow, and plenty of times it is attributed to repeated mistakes made and the constant struggle to get past these mistakes, working on them accordingly. How we deal with them will shape our future as a trader, and most importantly as a person.

About the author:
Raul Lopez is the founder of www.straightforex.comA site dedicated to provide high quality Forex training.

The basis behind using technical analysis is to find trends when looking at the forex charts and be aware of when they first develop so you can ride the trend until it ends. The foreign exchange market is a very strong trending market, lots of ups and downs in short periods of time, and is, therefore, a place where technical analysis can be very effective.


But even considering the great amount of indicators available, there are still many traders every week who still end up buying (being "long") while the currency pair is in a basic downtrend, or selling short when a market is in a uptrend. This is, they end doing things backwards.


If you want to become a profitable forex trader you will need to use as many technical indicators as you want, or create a personalized trading strategy based off a combination of indicators, to recognize the trend. In other words, professional Forex traders try to identify the major trend, the intermediate trend, and the short-term trend and then construct their trades in that direction, based on how long their rules allow them to hold a position.

If the action of the market shows your judgment to be correct, the successful trader 'stays with the market' and endeavors to make the maximum profit on each trade, according to his/her risk-to-reward / equity management rules. If and when the market goes against him/her, the smart trader will take profits and get out. In a narrow market, when prices are not going anywhere to speak of, but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate when the next BIG movement is going to be - up or down.

In short, if you want to be in good profitable terms with the forex markets you must follow this words of wisdom: “Never argue with the market, or ask it for reasons or explanations”.

About the author:
Adrian Pablo;Forex trader and freelance writer.
http://www.1-forex.com

Forex trading is a fascinating way of earning a living online, and if you are seriously considering entering this fascinating world of forex trading you must consider, by all means, the learning and understanding of a number of indicators that will give you invaluable help on predicting with a high probability the directions the forex market may take as you carefully analyze the price charts for any currency you are trading at the moment. Two of these important indicators are: “Bollinger Bands” and “Fibonacci Retracements”.

The basic interpretation of “Bollinger Bands” is that prices tend to stay within the space formed by the tracings of the upper and lower bands. The distinctive characteristic of “Bollinger Bands” is that the spacing between the bands varies based on the volatility of the prices. During periods of extreme currency price changes (i.e., high volatility), the bands widen to become more forgiving. During periods of low volatility, the bands narrow to contain currency prices. The bands are plotted two standard deviations above and below a simple moving average. They indicate a "sell" when prices are above the moving average (or close to the upper band) and a "buy" when prices are below it (or close to the lower band). The bands are used by some forex traders in conjunction with other analyses, including RSI, MACD, CCI, and Rate of Change.

“Fibonacci retracement levels” are a sequence of numbers discovered by the noted mathematician Leonardo da Pisa during the twelfth century. These numbers describe cycles found throughout nature and when applied to technical analysis can be used to find pullbacks in the currency market.


“Fibonacci retracement levels” are a quite effective way to see the future (at least in the forex markets), i.e., it involves anticipating changes in trends as prices near the lines created by the Fibonacci studies. After a significant price move (either up or down), prices will often retrace a significant portion (if not all) of the original move. As prices retrace, support and resistance levels often occur at or near the “Fibonacci Retracement levels” (See my articles on “Fibonacci trading” for more detail about this).


In the currency markets, the commonly used sequence of ratios is 23.6 %, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. Fibonacci retracement levels can easily be displayed by connecting a trend line from a perceived high point to a perceived low point. By taking the difference between the high and low, the user can apply the % ratios to achieve the desired pullbacks.

About the author:
Adrian Pablo; Forex trader and freelance writer. http://www.1-forex.com