Contracting bands warn that the market is about to trend: the bands first converge into a narrow neck, followed by a sharp price movement. The first breakout is often a false move, preceding a strong trend in the opposite direction.
A move that starts at one band normally carries through to the other, in a ranging market.
A move outside the band indicates that the trend is strong and likely to continue - unless price quickly reverses.
A trend that hugs one band signals that the trend is strong and likely to continue. Wait for divergence (when the price is flat or rising or falling, but the MACD is going in the opposite direction...the price will break out in the direction of the MACD) or a Momentum Indicator to signal the end of a trend.
I use the BB's for indication of when a breakout or breakdown is imminent. When the outside bands get very narrow, it means the price is consolidating and is getting ready for a breakout, either up or down.
At this point, it's dangerous to have a position because you don't know if it's going to break up or down. When the bands get very narrow, it's almost better to close out your old positions, even at a loss, until you see a clear direction. If you don't want to close out an old position at a loss, at least hedge it. See more about hedging later in the Advanced Day Trade Forex course.
The BB's can't tell you which direction the breakout will be, the Chaos Oscillator (MACD) and Momentum will do that, and I always trade in the direction the Momentum and Chaos (MACD) are going.
Sometimes when using the slower timeframes, I use the outer BB's as targets for my limit sell price. If the bands are really wide after a big move, I use the middle band as my limit target price.
Bollinger Bands are designed to capture the majority of price movement. When prices move beyond the upper or lower band, they are considered high (overbought) or low (oversold) on a relative basis.
More On Using Bollinger Bands:
First, the BB's can be used as I mentioned before, as price targets. If the bands are narrow, the price will be jumping up & down within the two outer bands. As mentioned before, this is not the best time to be putting on a trade,
as the trading range is too narrow, unless you can make a decent quick profit in a 1 or 5 minute chart.
If the range isn't too narrow, you can ride it up and down and book pips. I only attempt this in a 1 or 5 minute timeframe using the 5/9/18/50 EMA's. Don't do it if you can't make at least 5-10 pips up and down. The danger is in whipsaws.
Most of the time, unless the bands are too narrow, you can make trades by literally bouncing off the outer bands.
This is called "The Bollinger Bounce".
When placing a trade, just set your stop at the outer BB and your price target limit sell order where the other outer band is.
If your trade rapidly approaches the limit price and all your indicators say that the price movement is just getting started & not likely to quickly reverse on you, then you should first either remove your limit price & let the price run, or, raise your limit price another 5-10 pips. Then raise your stop to either your entry point or past it, to lock in either breakeven or some profit in case the price suddenly reverses on you.
This is definitely what you should do in a price breakout. If the price keeps going up in an extended breakout, you just keep adjusting your stop upwards to lock in more profit (this is called a trailing stop, more later on this subject) and keep raising your limit also.
A Super Advanced method of using BB's is to use two sets of BB's, both with the middle band set at 18. Set one BB to a standard deviation of 3 and leave the other standard deviation at 1. This gives you 6 short term support/resistance lines to work with. Your initial stop and target are the outer bands, and your inner bands are used for your trailing stop and short term resistance and
support. You can also trade off the two inner bands.
This method is very similar to using Fibonacci OR Average True Range (ATR), but is much easier to use and understand.
Pleave visit the author's other trading sites for more trading information:
http://www.daytrade-forex.com
http://www.daytradeforex.com
http://www.daytradeforex.com/products.htm
http://www.professionalforextrading.info
http://www.professionalforextradingonline.info
http://www.successtrading2000.com
http://www.successtrading2000.com/forex
http://www.tradecurrency.ca/education.htm
http://www.shortterminvestingsite.com
About the author:
Cynthia Macy has been trading various markets for over 12 years but now concentrates on the forex market. To learn more about forex trading, visit:
http://www.daytrade-forex.com
Request the 'Trade of the Week' to see actual trades using the trading methods and strategies.
What MACD & RSI Mean in Forex Trading? |
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As a forex trader your main objective must be to become a profitable trader. In order to achieve this goal, it is vital that you learn how to use the widely known technical indicators. These are very useful parameters that will tell you with a high probability what the forex markets are more likely to do in their apparently disordered behavior as observed on the forex charts.
Among these indicators you will find the MACD and RSI; but what’s the meaning of these letters?, you may be asking yourself. Well, here is the answer:
Moving Average Convergence Divergence: MACD is a more detailed method of using moving averages to find trading signals from price charts. Developed by Gerald Appel, the MACD plots the difference between a 26-day exponential moving average and a 12-day exponential moving average. A 9-day moving average is generally used as a trigger line, meaning when the MACD crosses below this trigger it is a bearish signal (time to sell) and when it crosses above it, it's a bullish signal (time to buy).
As with other studies, traders will look to MACD studies to provide early signals or divergences between market prices and a technical indicator. If the MACD turns positive and makes higher lows while prices are still tanking, this could be a strong_buy signal. Conversely, if the MACD makes lower highs while prices are making new highs, this could be a strong bearish divergence and a sell signal.
RSI stands for Relative Strength Index. The RSI measures the markets activity as to whether it is over bought or over sold. It gives a trader an indication as to which way the Market is moving. It is important to note, that this is a leading indicator and thus allows one to see what the market is about to do and then act accordingly. The higher the RSI number, the more over bought it is and conversely the lower the RSI number, the more over sold it is. It is a great leading indicator for the micro and macro reversals in the forex market. By using an RSI on the 1 minute chart set at a period of 18 and overlaid on the bottom of your charts tend to give the best entry signals. This can also be applied to the 5-minute chart as well. The two significant entry numbers are 25 and 75.
About the author:
Adrian Pablo; Forex trader and freelance writer.
http://www.1-forex.com
What’s the .382 Fibonacci Ratio in Forex Trading? |
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It was mentioned in a past article that Fibonacci forex trading is the basis of many forex trading systems used around the world by profitable forex traders. These systems are all based on the famous Fibonacci ratios (.236, .50, .382, .618, etc.) and each of them can specialize in a particular ratio along with other minor indicators in order to make the pinpointing of the entry and exit levels as accurate and profitable as possible.
One of the widely used Fibonacci ratios is the 0.382 ratio. As it can be easily seen on any forex chart, currency prices are continually changing and they follow an oscillatory pattern with peaks and valleys. The limit of the peak is usually called a resistance level while the valley is usually called a support.
In order to find the 0.382 ratio level what you do is, first; measure the size of the drop or rise over your time of interest. Once you have that value you multiply this by 0.382. Now depending on what you are looking at, a rise or a drop on the price of the particular “currency pair” you are trading, you will add the last value you calculated to the total drop or subtract the value from the total rise.
These operations will give you the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio level, either for a rise or a drop on the chart you are analyzing. Once you have the value you can then start planning the strategy you will follow in order to make a high probability profit from this valuable information. For the 0.382 ratio level calculated for a recent rise in the “currency pair” exchange price, your calculated level will be a highly probable support and for the case of a level calculated for a recent drop of the prices your level will be a highly probable resistance.
Knowing this ahead of the market and having the proper secondary indicators, will give you a huge advantage over most forex traders, and that’s something any trader would like they could count on. That’s why Fibonacci trading is so widely accepted over the world, and of course, why it’s so profitable and successful.
About the author:
Adrian Pablo; Forex trader and freelance writer.
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Pivot Points in Forex: Mapping your Time Frame
by: Raul Lopez
It is useful to have a map and be able to see where the price is relative to previous market action. This way we can see how is the sentiment of traders and investors at any given moment, it also gives us a general idea of where the market is heading during the day. This information can help us decide which way to trade.
Pivot points, a technique developed by floor traders, help us see where the price is relative to previous market action.
As a definition, a pivot point is a turning point or condition. The same applies to the Forex market, the pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of the market changes from “bull” to “bear” or vice versa. If the market breaks this level up, then the sentiment is said to be a bull market and it is likely to continue its way up, on the other hand, if the market breaks this level down, then the sentiment is bear, and it is expected to continue its way down. Also at this level, the market is expected to have some kind of support/resistance, and if price can’t break the pivot point, a possible bounce from it is plausible.
Pivot points work best on highly liquid markets, like the spot currency market, but they can also be used in other markets as well.
Pivot Points
In a few words, pivot point is a level in which the sentiment of traders and investors changes from bull to bear or vice versa.
Why PP work?
They work simply because many individual traders and investors use and trust them, as well as bank and institutional traders. It is known to every trader that the pivot point is an important measure of strength and weakness of any market.
Calculating pivot points
There are several ways to arrive to the Pivot point. The method we found to have the most accurate results is calculated by taking the average of the high, low and close of a previous period (or session).
Pivot point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
Take for instance the following EUR/USD information from the previous session:
Open: 1.2386
High: 1.2474
Low: 1.2376
Close: 1.2458
The PP would be,
PP = (1.2474 + 1.2376 + 1.2458) / 3 = 1.2439
What does this number tell us?
It simply tells us that if the market is trading above 1.2439, Bulls are winning the battle pushing the prices higher. And if the market is trading below this 1.2439 the bears are winning the battle pulling prices lower. On both cases this condition is likely to sustain until the next session.
Since the Forex market is a 24hr market (no close or open from day to day) there is a eternal battle on deciding at white time we should take the open, close, high and low from each session. From our point of view, the times that produce more accurate predictions is taking the open at 00:00 GMT and the close at 23:59 GMT.
Besides the calculation of the PP, there are other support and resistance levels that are calculated taking the PP as a reference.
Support 1 (S1) = (PP * 2) – H
Resistance 1 (R1) = (PP * 2) - L
Support 2 (S2) = PP – (R1 – S1)
Resistance 2 (R2) = PP + (R1 – S1)
Where , H is the High of the previous period and L is the low of the previous period
Continuing with the example above, PP = 1.2439
S1 = (1.2439 * 2) - 1.2474 = 1.2404
R1 = (1.2439 * 2) – 1.2376 = 1.2502
R2 = 1.2439 + (1.2636 – 1.2537) = 1.2537
S2 = 1.2439 – (1.2636 – 1.2537) = 1.2537
These levels are supposed to mark support and resistance levels for the current session.
On the example above, the PP was calculated using information of the previous session (previous day.) This way we could see possible intraday resistance and support levels. But it can also be calculated using the previous weekly or monthly data to determine such levels. By doing so we are able to see the sentiment over longer periods of time. Also we can see possible levels that might offer support and resistance throughout the week or month. Calculating the Pivot point in a weekly or monthly basis is mostly used by long term traders, but it can also be used by short time traders, it gives us a good idea about the longer term trend.
S1, S2, R1 AND R2...? An Objective Alternative
As already stated, the pivot point zone is a well-known technique and it works simply because many traders and investors use and trust it. But what about the other support and resistance zones (S1, S2, R1 and R2,) to forecast a support or resistance level with some mathematical formula is somehow subjective. It is hard to rely on them blindly just because the formula popped out that level. For this reason, we have created an alternative way to map our time frame, simpler but more objective and effective.
We calculate the pivot point as showed before. But our support and resistance levels are drawn in a different way. We take the previous session high and low, and draw those levels on today’s chart. The same is done with the session before the previous session. So, we will have our PP and four more important levels drawn in our chart.
LOPS1, low of the previous session.
HOPS1, high of the previous session.
LOPS2, low of the session before the previous session.
HOPS2, high of the session before the previous session.
PP, pivot point.
These levels will tell us the strength of the market at any given moment. If the market is trading above the PP, then the market is considered in a possible uptrend. If the market is trading above HOPS1 or HOPS2, then the market is in an uptrend, and we only take long positions. If the market is trading below the PP then the market is considered in a possible downtrend. If the market is trading below LOPS1 or LOPS2, then the market is in a downtrend, and we should only consider short trades.
The psychology behind this approach is simple. We know that for some reason the market stopped there from going higher/lower the previous session, or the session before that. We don’t know the reason, and we don’t need to know it. We only know the fact: the market reversed at that level. We also know that traders and investors have memories, they do remember that the price stopped there before, and the odds are that the market reverses from there again (maybe because the same reason, and maybe not) or at least find some support or resistance at these levels.
What is important about his approach is that support and resistance levels are measured objectively; they aren’t just a level derived from a mathematical formula, the price reversed there before so these levels have a higher probability of being effective.
Our mapping method works on both market conditions, when trending and on sideways conditions. In a trending market, it helps us determine the strength of the trend and trade off important levels. On sideways markets it shows us possible reversal levels.
How we use our mapping method?
We at StraightForex (www.straightforex.com) use the mapping method in three different ways: as a trend identification (measure of the strength of the trend), a trading system using important levels with price behavior as a trading signal and to set the risk reward ratio (RR) of any given trade based on where the is the market relative to the previous session.
About the author:
Raul Lopez is the founder of www.straightforex.comA site dedicated to provide high quality training for Forex traders.
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